Don't just do something, stand there! Reflections on the counterintuitive behavior of complex systems, seen through the eyes of System Dynamics, Systems Thinking and simulation.
In an effort to get a handle on Waxman Markey, I’ve been digging through the EPA’s analysis. Here’s a visualization of covered vs. uncovered emissions in 2016 (click through for the interactive version). The orange bits above are uncovered emissions – mostly the usual suspects: methane from cow burps, landfills, and coal mines; N2O from … Continue reading “Waxman-Markey emissions coverage”
My take: It’s a noble effort, but flawed. The best thing about it is the broad, upstream coverage of >85% of emissions. However, there are too many extraneous pieces operating alongside the cap. Those create possible inefficiencies, where the price of carbon is nonuniform across the economy, and create a huge design task and administrative … Continue reading “Reactions to Waxman Markey”
Science’s Eli Kintishch and Gavin Schmidt liveblogged the House hearing on climate science this morning. My favorite tidbits: Gavin Schmidt: One theme that will be constant is that unilateral action by the US is meaningless if everyone else continues with business as usual. However, this is not a ethical argument for not doing anything. Edward … Continue reading “The House Climate Science Hearing”
The official discussion draft of the Kerry-Lieberman American Power Act is out. My heart sank when I saw the page count – 987. I won’t be able to review this in any detail soon. Based on a quick look, I see two potentially huge items: the “hard price collar” has a soft ceiling, and transport … Continue reading “The real Kerry-Lieberman APA stands up, with two big surprises”
I think it’s a second-best policy, but perhaps the most we can hope for, and better than nothing. Climate Progress has a first analysis and links to the leaked draft legislation outline and short summary of the Kerry-Lieberman American Power Act. [Update: there’s now a nice summary table.] For me, the bottom line is, what … Continue reading “Kerry-Lieberman "American Power Act" leaked”
Over Christmas, with little fanfare, two new approaches to climate legislation were introduced, perhaps in response to the possibility that Boxer-Kerry’s prospects are dimming. VentureBeat has a summary. The Kerry-Lieberman-Graham approach is just a “framework” and too vague for me to sink my teeth into. The Cantwell-Collins CLEAR act on the other hand is a … Continue reading “Climate bills LITE”
Mining my hard drive for stuff I did a few weeks back, when the Waxman Markey draft was just out, I ran across this graph: It shows prices for electricity and petroleum from the ADAGE model in the June EPA analysis. BAU = business-as-usual; SCN 02 = updated Waxman-Markey scenario; SCN 06 = W-M without … Continue reading “Allocation Oddity”
I’ve been reading the Breakthrough Institute’s Waxman Markey analysis, which is a bit spotty* but raises many interesting issues. One comment seemed too crazy to be true: that the W-M strategic reserve is “refilled” with forestry offsets. Sure enough, it is true: 726 (g) (2) INTERNATIONAL OFFSET CREDITS FOR REDUCED DEFORESTATION- The Administrator shall use … Continue reading “Strategic Excess?”
I ran across this gem in the text of Waxman Markey (HR 2454): (e) Trade-vulnerable Industries- (1) IN GENERAL- The Administrator shall allocate emission allowances to energy-intensive, trade-exposed entities, to be distributed in accordance with section 765, in the following amounts: (A) For vintage years 2012 and 2013, up to 2.0 percent of the emission … Continue reading “Talking to the taxman about math”