Comments for MetaSD http://blog.metasd.com Don't just do something, stand there! (Sometimes good policy in complex systems is counterintuitive) Tue, 14 May 2013 06:04:40 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.2 Comment on A musical interlude by Bill Harris http://blog.metasd.com/2013/04/a-musical-interlude/comment-page-1/#comment-23139 Bill Harris Tue, 14 May 2013 06:04:40 +0000 http://blog.metasd.com/?p=3144#comment-23139 Very cool! Kudos to your sons! Very cool! Kudos to your sons!

]]> Comment on Early warnings of catastrophe by Tom Fid http://blog.metasd.com/2013/04/early-warnings-of-catastrophe/comment-page-1/#comment-22794 Tom Fid Tue, 30 Apr 2013 21:33:32 +0000 http://blog.metasd.com/?p=3137#comment-22794 Interesting point. The equation is Maturing=r*Juveniles*k/(k+Juveniles*Juveniles), so for large Juvenile populations maturation decreases, which is what happens. They describe this as a "bottleneck" but it actually seems stronger than that. It seems like you'd have to have some kind of competitive or resource effect among juveniles to get that outcome. I can't say how realistic it is. Interesting point. The equation is Maturing=r*Juveniles*k/(k+Juveniles*Juveniles), so for large Juvenile populations maturation decreases, which is what happens. They describe this as a “bottleneck” but it actually seems stronger than that. It seems like you’d have to have some kind of competitive or resource effect among juveniles to get that outcome. I can’t say how realistic it is.

]]> Comment on Early warnings of catastrophe by Gwaihir http://blog.metasd.com/2013/04/early-warnings-of-catastrophe/comment-page-1/#comment-22790 Gwaihir Tue, 30 Apr 2013 19:27:20 +0000 http://blog.metasd.com/?p=3137#comment-22790 Tom, please correct me if I wrong but from a real world perspective I don't understand why the density of adults stays the same when predators collapse and juveniles density explodes. There seems to be something odd about the maturing equation which decreases the number of maturing juveniles when their density increases, e.g. they stay longer juvenile when there are more of them. Tom, please correct me if I wrong but from a real world perspective I don’t understand why the density of adults stays the same when predators collapse and juveniles density explodes. There seems to be something odd about the maturing equation which decreases the number of maturing juveniles when their density increases, e.g. they stay longer juvenile when there are more of them.

]]> Comment on What the heck is a bifurcation? by Early warnings of catastrophe « MetaSD http://blog.metasd.com/2013/04/what-the-heck-is-a-bifurcation/comment-page-1/#comment-22785 Early warnings of catastrophe « MetaSD Tue, 30 Apr 2013 16:55:17 +0000 http://blog.metasd.com/?p=2288#comment-22785 [...] get the insight, it helps to back up a bit. (If you haven’t read my posts on bifurcations and 1D vector fields, they’re good background for [...] [...] get the insight, it helps to back up a bit. (If you haven’t read my posts on bifurcations and 1D vector fields, they’re good background for [...]

]]> Comment on Hair of the dog that bit you climate policy by Another Week of Anthropocene Antics, April 28, 2013 – A Few Things Ill Considered http://blog.metasd.com/2013/04/hair-of-the-dog-that-bit-you-climate-policy/comment-page-1/#comment-22750 Another Week of Anthropocene Antics, April 28, 2013 – A Few Things Ill Considered Mon, 29 Apr 2013 14:08:29 +0000 http://blog.metasd.com/?p=3130#comment-22750 [...] 2013/04/26: MetaSD: Hair of the dog that bit you climate policy [...] [...] 2013/04/26: MetaSD: Hair of the dog that bit you climate policy [...]

]]> Comment on Causality in nonlinear systems by Edgar Duarte http://blog.metasd.com/2013/04/causality-in-nonlinear-systems/comment-page-1/#comment-22698 Edgar Duarte Sat, 27 Apr 2013 15:12:16 +0000 http://blog.metasd.com/?p=3105#comment-22698 Excellent approach, it is a very interesting article for the development of new researches. Thank you so much. Excellent approach, it is a very interesting article for the development of new researches. Thank you so much.

]]> Comment on Hair of the dog that bit you climate policy by Tom Fid http://blog.metasd.com/2013/04/hair-of-the-dog-that-bit-you-climate-policy/comment-page-1/#comment-22678 Tom Fid Fri, 26 Apr 2013 20:26:47 +0000 http://blog.metasd.com/?p=3130#comment-22678 Generally I agree, though if you look outside the electric power system, it's easier to make a case that noncarbon sources are still more expensive. Obviously, if you count the social cost of carbon, fossil sources look much worse. What I was trying to do here is point out that, even if you make the most favorable assumptions for continued use of fossil fuels, the idea that using more FF is the right way to decrease FF emissions is pretty stupid. Generally I agree, though if you look outside the electric power system, it’s easier to make a case that noncarbon sources are still more expensive.

Obviously, if you count the social cost of carbon, fossil sources look much worse.

What I was trying to do here is point out that, even if you make the most favorable assumptions for continued use of fossil fuels, the idea that using more FF is the right way to decrease FF emissions is pretty stupid.

]]> Comment on Hair of the dog that bit you climate policy by Turboblocke http://blog.metasd.com/2013/04/hair-of-the-dog-that-bit-you-climate-policy/comment-page-1/#comment-22674 Turboblocke Fri, 26 Apr 2013 19:53:14 +0000 http://blog.metasd.com/?p=3130#comment-22674 Maybe I'm missing something but what about - merit order effect where renewables bring down the wholesale price of electricity - in many markets renewables are at grid parity or will be in a couple of years - research shows that the indirect subsidies to coal outweigh the value from burning it. Maybe I’m missing something but what about
- merit order effect where renewables bring down the wholesale price of electricity
- in many markets renewables are at grid parity or will be in a couple of years
- research shows that the indirect subsidies to coal outweigh the value from burning it.

]]> Comment on Tax time by Bruce Skarin http://blog.metasd.com/2013/04/tax-time/comment-page-1/#comment-22599 Bruce Skarin Wed, 24 Apr 2013 18:22:06 +0000 http://blog.metasd.com/?p=3122#comment-22599 Another nice concise summary Tom. It's hard to explain why all the half measures are nowhere near enough and that a carbon tax is not only more complete but also more simple. Unfortunately the stigma of the word tax has become so politicized that it's become a very difficult sell. I think the real challenge is helping people understand that it's all a shell game anyway. One way or another we (or our children/grandchildren) will end up paying a "tax" for all the costs of action or inaction. What people need to understand is how we are being duped across the board from the carbon industry to government. If we can unmask all the hidden costs and show a better way to align the true cost of all industry and government policies with the problems they are solving, I think people might finally get it. Below is link to a decent and timely summary by Bill McKibben supporting your argument. You've probably seen the 350.org movie that it is based on, but if not, it's also fairly succinct. One issue I have though is their second number for the amount of CO2 we can "safely" dump into the atmosphere. I know it's more compelling especially compared to the final number for CO2 in reserves, but it's the rate that's more important. As I've mentioned before, we don't have to kill the carbon industry completely. In fact we can extend its longevity from just a few hundred years to a thousand or more. Carbon products will likely still be convenient and import part of the economy in perpetuity, just as long as the RATE is within a sustainable equilibrium. If the CEOs of carbon companies truly care about the longevity of their industry then this kind of message will have far more resonance than an adversarial "you are the enemy" message. Just some more food for thought. The summary interview with Bill http://abcnews.go.com/Nightline/video/state-planet-numbers-19027938 The whole movie: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=IsIfokifwSo#! Another nice concise summary Tom. It’s hard to explain why all the half measures are nowhere near enough and that a carbon tax is not only more complete but also more simple. Unfortunately the stigma of the word tax has become so politicized that it’s become a very difficult sell.

I think the real challenge is helping people understand that it’s all a shell game anyway. One way or another we (or our children/grandchildren) will end up paying a “tax” for all the costs of action or inaction. What people need to understand is how we are being duped across the board from the carbon industry to government.

If we can unmask all the hidden costs and show a better way to align the true cost of all industry and government policies with the problems they are solving, I think people might finally get it.

Below is link to a decent and timely summary by Bill McKibben supporting your argument. You’ve probably seen the 350.org movie that it is based on, but if not, it’s also fairly succinct. One issue I have though is their second number for the amount of CO2 we can “safely” dump into the atmosphere.

I know it’s more compelling especially compared to the final number for CO2 in reserves, but it’s the rate that’s more important. As I’ve mentioned before, we don’t have to kill the carbon industry completely. In fact we can extend its longevity from just a few hundred years to a thousand or more. Carbon products will likely still be convenient and import part of the economy in perpetuity, just as long as the RATE is within a sustainable equilibrium.

If the CEOs of carbon companies truly care about the longevity of their industry then this kind of message will have far more resonance than an adversarial “you are the enemy” message. Just some more food for thought.

The summary interview with Bill
http://abcnews.go.com/Nightline/video/state-planet-numbers-19027938

The whole movie:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=IsIfokifwSo#!

]]> Comment on EU ETS on the ropes by Tax time « MetaSD http://blog.metasd.com/2013/04/eu-ets-on-the-ropes/comment-page-1/#comment-22579 Tax time « MetaSD Tue, 23 Apr 2013 19:26:14 +0000 http://blog.metasd.com/?p=3112#comment-22579 [...] hard to design an emissions market that works well on a large scale, resisting volatility, in pursuit of elusive environmental [...] [...] hard to design an emissions market that works well on a large scale, resisting volatility, in pursuit of elusive environmental [...]

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